Almost half a million people worldwide could die by February due to extreme heat caused by El Niño

El Niño—a natural climate pattern that typically amplifies global temperature rises—has now reached "super" proportions and is approaching record-breaking intensity.

Combined with the global warming the planet is already experiencing due to fossil fuel pollution, the consequences of the heat could be devastating, according to an analysis published Wednesday by the Climate Impact Lab, a team of scientists, economists, and data specialists based at the University of Chicago.

Scientists predict that heat associated with El Niño could claim 451,000 lives between June 2026 and February 2027. These fatalities would be in addition to the usual number of deaths linked to heat and other extreme events fueled by El Niño, such as wildfires, floods, and droughts.

Researchers also anticipate that this figure will likely rise, as El Niño is expected to persist into the Northern Hemisphere spring, meaning its warming effects will continue through the summer months.

 Countries in the Global South, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, Chad, nations in Southeast Asia, India, Indonesia, and Brazil, will be hit the hardest.